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Revisiting The Dow’s Side Kick

CAMS Weekly View from the Corner – Week ending 8/17/2018

August 20, 2018

At this juncture the horizontal black line in the chart acts as a solid ceiling in recent months whereby this Index has been unable to penetrate through to the upside.  With this propensity to hang up there at these levels it is implying more strength than previously displayed.  If the black line can be penetrated to the upside this will pave the way for the overall stock market to improve further. The Dow’s Sidekick Points to Upside Potential – Weekly View May 21, 2018

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has an important sidekick known as the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

If you are a consistent reader of these Weekly Views you may recognize this brethren type relationship in that we have looked at the two together numerous times in the course of our Weekly Views in the previous couple of years.

The long-standing “Dow Theory” is often looked at by the analytical community.  This theory, simply speaking, offers if the two indices are performing well together then collective market participants are pointing to a good market backdrop.

Our header quote is an excerpt from a Weekly View back in May of this year whereby we looked at the resilient behavior (at that time) of the Transportation Average relative to a black line we had drawn on its chart.

The point was the black line price area had become quite a challenge for the Transportation Average being it would touch it and then retrace lower.

In late May it appeared the Transportation Average was displaying some leadership traits (in terms of its performance) compared to the well recognized market gauges of the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The important takeaway was good performance from the Transportation Average usually bodes well for the well known market gauges going forward.


Click for larger view: http://schrts.co/4LskHp

The above chart is the same one used in our May Weekly View – updated to current day.  The aforementioned black line depicts the challenge this index had up to that point.

As depicted, this index was able to finally get above the black line in early June only to go lower again.  Importantly, by late June it began an upward trend whereby it not only went above the black line but is currently approaching its previous high level point.

Through this process, since late June, the positive behavior of this Average has served a purpose in that it has led the major market gauges in performance and through this all three have performed well.

This underlines the importance of focusing on market behavior rather than headlines to help point the way in gauging market direction.

At times collective market participants “look through” the headlines, which is to say they seemingly ignore them because they collectively “see” other things that are far more important to them.

The above type of focus on market behavior allows all of us as participants to help determine if current headline backdrops are important to market overall.

Currently, even with a plethora of market challenging headlines, the overall market continues to reflect a resilient strength.  We are watching closely and will share accordingly for any signs to the contrary.

I wish you well…

Ken Reinhart

Director, Market Research & Portfolio Analysis

Portfolio Manager, CAMS Spectrum Portfolio

Footnote:

H&UP’s is a quick summation of a rating system for SPX9 (abbreviation encompassing 9 Sectors of the S&P 500 with 107 sub-groups within those 9 sectors) that quickly references the percentage that is deemed healthy and higher (H&UP).  This comes from the proprietary “V-NN” ranking system that is composed of 4 ratings which are “V-H-N-or NN”.  A “V” or an “H” is a positive or constructive rank for said sector or sub-group within the sectors.

This commentary is presented only to provide perspectives on investment strategies and opportunities. The material contains opinions of the author, which are subject to markets change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions which fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for descriptive purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions. Each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. PERFORMANCE IS NOT GUARANTEED AND LOSSES CAN OCCUR WITH ANY INVESTMENT STRATEGY.

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